Jonathan Bernstein, Columnist

How Trump Loses

Why political scientists like me are sure he won't be the Republican nominee.

August 13, 2015 at 1:46 PM UTC

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics. A former professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio, he wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.

So much for the experts.
Photographer: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

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Someone challenged me in an e-mail discussion to explain how Donald Trump can possibly lose the Republican nomination. I've said over and over why he isn't going to be the party's nominee, but, true, I haven't explained the how of it.

After all, he's leading in the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and nationally. It's one thing to say early polls don't predict nominations, but how do we get from here to there?