Jonathan J Miller, Columnist

A Housing Recovery Built to Last?

One indicator hasn't looked this good in years.

May 11, 2015 at 7:10 PM UTC

Jonathan Miller writes about the housing economy and other aspects of real estate. He began a real estate blog, the Matrix, in 2005, and has written a column for Curbed.com. He is co-founder of Miller Samuel, a residential real estate appraisal company, and the commercial valuation firm Miller Cicero.

That's the right direction.
Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

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The housing market has recovered in fits and starts since the financial crisis, so it's worth noting when one important indicator looks really strong. This is the case with the pending home sales index, which reflects contracts signed for purchases of single-family homes, co-ops and condos, published by the National Association of Realtors.

As of March, the index (using the nonseasonally adjusted results) registered a reading of 132.2, up 13.4 percent from a year earlier. That was the second highest level since the financial crisis began. The highest point in the post-crisis period was in April 2010, the last month of a program that gave buyers tax credits as part of the federal stimulus effort to jump-start the economy. In May, the month after the program expired, pending sales plummeted 33.3 percent, showing that the stimulus didn't give housing a lasting boost.