Matt Levine, Columnist

Today's the Day for Argentina and Its Vultures

A not to be underestimated morsel of the Argentina situation: Its Discount bonds trade at par, and its Par bonds trade at a discount.

July 30, 2014 at 7:27 PM UTC

By Matt Levine

Matt Levine is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former investment banker at Goldman Sachs, he was a mergers and acquisitions lawyer at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz; a clerk for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit; and an editor of Dealbreaker.

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Will Argentina, or its friends, be able to reach a settlement with its holdout creditors in time to prevent a default today? I am going to go with the answer "no, because Argentina has probably already defaulted," but I acknowledge that there's plenty of murk there. As best as I can tell, though:

Each part of that is murky, and you can wade through the murk in those footnotes,5 but the point is: It is no longer today in Japan, the yen bonds don't seem to have been paid, so that sounds like a default. But who knows.