Obamacare Might Help You Live Longer

Last May, researchers studying a randomized controlled trial of Oregon’s Medicaid expansion released a bombshell report that found no significant improvements in mortality rates or key health markers for blood pressure, hypertension and diabetes control. I did three major posts on it (one of which was a guest post from Jim Manzi, the world’s leading popular author on the virtues -- and limitations -- of RCTs). At the end of my first post, I wrote:

Well, good Bayesians have another data point: A different team of researchers has looked at mortality rates in Massachusetts after Romneycare. And they found what is, for mortality rates, a huge decrease: 8.2 per 100,000 per year for adults 20 to 64. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but your risk of dying in any year between 20 and 64 isn’t that high. So a big, fat decline like 8.2 per 100,000 makes you sit up and take notice.