Health-Care Costs Are Driven By Technology, Not Presidents

Yesterday I attended Brookings Papers on Economic Activity to watch some of the smartest economists in America debate some of the most interesting papers. The very first paper presented is of particularly timely interest: "Is This Time Different? The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending."

Those of you who do not spend many happy waking hours parsing health statistics may be unaware that the rate of increase in health-care spending has slowed in recent years. The administration and not a few people in the press are fond of claiming this as a victory for President Barack Obama's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. The program is so fantastic on cost control, the argument goes, that providers have naturally started to control costs in preparation for the actual implementation. Authors Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Holmes and Jonathan Skinner dismiss this explanation. Most of the cost controls haven't kicked in yet, while one cost-increasing factor (the expansion of private insurance coverage to children under 26) has already taken effect. More importantly, as they note, "the downturn in health-care cost growth began in 2006, back when Barack Obama was still a relatively unknown senator from Illinois."