History Shows Even Sovereign Bond Default Won’t Unseat Maduro

  • Under 15% of defaults since 1992 spurred government change
  • Maduro could ‘stay in power through it all,’ Reinhart says

Venezuela Inches Closer to Dictatorship

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Venezuela has a dubious backstory when it comes to paying sovereign debt. It’s tied with Ecuador for the most defaults since 1800.

But for anyone betting that a default would catapult President Nicolas Maduro from office even as he holds on in the face of untold economic misery, here’s a more relevant marker: Not once on those 10 occasions, most recently in 2004, did a missed payment spur a change in government.