Latest U.K. Polling Shock Puts Traders in Dark as Election Nears
- YouGov projection sees May’s Conservatives losing seats
- Model used successfully in Brexit referendum, U.S. election
U.K. Conservatives May Lose Majority in Vote: Poll
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Britain’s pollsters and election experts rushed to explain the nuances of their trade after YouGov Plc published an analysis suggesting Theresa May’s Conservative Party could lose seats and even power in the June 8 vote.
The pound fell after YouGov’s model, published in the Times, suggested the Tories would win between 274 and 345 seats if current polling was replicated on election day. They need 326 for a majority in the House of Commons. Polling experts, including YouGov Chief Executive Officer Stephan Shakespeare, pointed out that the analysis wasn’t a prediction, but rather an attempt to translate current polling into seats.