Trump Beats Clinton for Investor Confidence in National Pollby
Cash, gold top choices for those who plan to alter investments
Higher taxes on top income-earners and pay limits are popular
More voters with a stake in the stock market say Donald Trump would be better as president for their portfolios than Hillary Clinton, with about one in four saying they’ll alter their asset mix if the Republican is elected and a similar share saying they’d do so if the Democrat wins.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult national poll on investment, tax and economic issues shows voters with money in the market pick Trump over Clinton, 50 percent to 33 percent, as the person they think will be better for their portfolio. Those with more than $50,000 invested answer the question almost identically as smaller investors.
Partisanship is a driving force for their choices. Nearly eight in 10 Republicans say Trump would be better for their holdings, while about six in 10 Democrats say Clinton would. Independent voters are twice as likely to pick Trump as better for their portfolios.
"Donald Trump has made his business experience a key point in his campaign, and it seems to be resonating with voters," said Kyle Dropp, co-founder and chief research officer at Morning Consult, a Washington-based media and technology company. "Even so, our polling also indicates that investors may still be tepid, with many saying they will shift their portfolios to safer assets regardless of who is elected."
The online survey was conducted June 15-18 using a nationally representative opt-in panel of 2,001 registered voters, including 945 with money in the stock market. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points on the full sample, and plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for investors.
Registered voters as a whole strongly support some of the tax and economic policy proposals being debated in the campaign, including limiting pay for corporate executives and a Clinton-backed proposal to add a 4 percent income-tax "surcharge" on earnings of more than $5 million.
More than two-thirds support Clinton’s suggestion to increase taxes on those with earnings of more than $5 million, which would apply to .02 percent of taxpayers.
At the same time, 37 percent support Clinton’s proposal to have people pay ordinary income tax on investments held less than two years, up from one year. Almost four in 10 oppose the idea. Similarly, there is limited support for reducing corporate tax rates or lowering the top tax bracket for wealthy Americans.
Among voters who also are investors, cash and gold are among the top choices for those who say they plan to alter their investment positions based on the outcome of the election.
Among the 26 percent who would alter their investments if Trump is elected, 46 percent say they’d put more money into cash and 41 percent would buy more gold. Both assets are traditionally viewed as a place of safety amid uncertainty.
Roughly half of those who would make an investment move based on a Trump election say they would invest less in U.S. stocks, while 49 percent would invest less in government bonds. For both corporate bonds and international stocks, 41 percent say they would invest less in those assets.
Among the 28 percent of voters who say they’d make an investment change if Clinton were elected, 43 percent say they’d buy gold and 40 percent say they’d hold more in cash. Almost two-thirds of those who would make a move say they’d invest less in the U.S. stock market, while 60 percent say that of government bonds, 55 percent for corporate bonds and 48 percent for international stocks.
The survey found 47 percent of registered voters have at least something invested in the stock market, slightly below the 52 percent recorded in a recent Gallup survey of all Americans.
View on Recession
Nearly six in 10 registered voters say a recession is very or somewhat likely during the next four years, while only a quarter think it’s not too likely or not likely at all.
If a recession hits during the next presidency, 45 percent of registered voters say Trump would be better at dealing with the situation, while 36 percent pick Clinton.
The former secretary of state’s suggestion that she’d put her husband, former President Bill Clinton, in charge of revitalizing the economy is supported by 46 percent of registered voters. The idea is somewhat opposed by 13 percent and strongly opposed by 31 percent.
Overall, voters are more neutral than anything else when asked where they think the stock market will be a year from now. A third say they expect it will be about where it is now, while 25 percent say somewhat higher and 5 percent are bullish enough to say "much higher." Sixteen percent think somewhat or much lower.
Seven in 10 registered voters say they generally support increasing taxes on wealthy Americans, while just 21 percent are opposed.
There’s more opposition than support for a Trump-backed proposal to cut the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from 35 percent. That idea is opposed by 48 percent of registered voters and backed by 33 percent.
His proposal to lower the income-tax rate paid by the wealthiest Americans to 25 percent from 39.6 percent is strongly opposed by 49 percent of registered voters. Another 16 percent somewhat oppose the idea, while just 22 percent support it.
Almost two-thirds of voters support the so-called Buffett Rule, named after billionaire investor Warren Buffett and backed by Clinton and President Barack Obama, that would tax incomes exceeding $1 million at a minimum rate of 30 percent.
At the opposite end of the income spectrum, 72 percent of voters support raising the national minimum wage to $10, up from its current $7.25 an hour. Almost half strongly support the idea.
Nearly three-quarters of registered voters are either somewhat or strongly supportive of the idea of auditing the Federal Reserve by an independent government agency and making the results public. Just 10 percent are opposed.
Support for the idea of auditing the Fed drops from three-quarters to 64 percent among the half of voters who saw Trump’s name attached to this proposal.