Democrats Don’t Have to Come Home for Clinton to Win
Clinton Looks to Unify Party After Obama Endorsement
In the wake of Donald Trump’s horrible, very bad, no-good weekend and Hillary Clinton winning the California primary, capturing the title of presumptive Democratic nominee, and earning the endorsement of President Barack Obama, what should we be watching for in the polls? Was the “coming home” media mantra—Republicans having returned, some Democrats not having come back as of yet—that emerged after the last round of polls correct?
On average (and depending on which of the various averages you prefer), Clinton leads Trump by 3 to 5 percentage points. The closeness of the polls has surprised some pundits—but a deeper dive suggest that there’s a lot that makes sense in the current polling and that they still provide a good way to understand the structure and math of the 2016 race.