Who Will Win New Hampshire? Here Are Eight Credible Predictions

With the Iowa caucuses in their rear view mirror, candidates have flocked to New Hampshire, where voters will cast their ballots Tuesday in the first primary of the 2016 presidential race. Nearly 40 percent of Granite State voters are still undecided, according to a recent university study, a huge bloc of votes whose ultimate disposition could yield surprises akin to what political nerds saw in Iowa. That said, after parsing everything from poll aggregations and betting markets to Google search data, it seems predictions are starting to coalesce.

The research project led by David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, successfully predicted the winner in 21 of the first 26 primary contests in 2012. As of noon Friday, PredictWise gave Donald Trump a 68 percent chance of winning in the Granite State. That estimate is down from a high of 77 percent before his second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. Marco Rubio, who placed a strong third in Iowa, was next most likely to win with 23 percent, while the other establishment candidates—Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich—have all lost ground. "Ted Cruz, who never looked great in New Hampshire, is still a long shot," said Rothschild.