Is Donald Trump Just a Summer Fling?

Without a doubt, the summer’s biggest political story is Donald Trump’s surge to the top of the 17-candidate-strong Republican presidential field. And, when it comes to assessing Trump, there is an odd alliance between quantitative geeks and media pundits. Although both continuously write and talk about Trump, the conventional wisdom is that Trump’s surge is akin to a sugar high.

In other words, when voters really start paying attention, the fundamentals or the regularities that drive vote choice and elections will re-assert themselves. As Amy Walter put it, “summer is for dating, winter is for mating.” And while voters may enjoy dating Trump over the summer, they eventually will want to marry “a nice boy from a good family.”