Why Rubio, Bush, Walker, and Kasich Are Not as Purple as They Look

There are two American electorates—and most of the Republican candidates, even ones from states like Florida or Ohio—have never faced the most important one.

A roll of 'I Voted' stickers, which are handed out to residents after they vote, sit on an election officials table at a polling place on November 4, 2014 in Ferguson, Missouri.
Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

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By Ken Goldstein

July 9, 2015 at 10:00 AM UTC

Updated on

July 9, 2015 at 5:44 PM UTC

This article is for subscribers only.

There are now 17 announced, or soon-to-be-announced, Republican candidates for president. And to the degree that they’re serious about winning the White House (an open question in some cases) they’re all trying to accomplish contradictory, if not mutually exclusive things: They have to sell themselves to the passionately partisan voters and caucus-goers in the early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada), while simultaneously making the all-important case that they would be the strongest candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton, before a very different electorate than that of the GOP primaries, in November 2016.

But what do we actually know about which of these 17 would be the strongest general election candidate? Which of these 17 could compete and win in the nine battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin) that will likely determine the 2016 election? Which of the 17 could expand the playing field into states like Michigan or Pennsylvania?