John Authers, Columnist

The Game Theory Is Pointing to More Escalation

For all that Trump wants a brief war, the window for an easy TACO exit is closed.

March 16, 2026 at 4:02 AM UTC

John Authers is a senior editor for markets and Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief markets commentator at the Financial Times, he is author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets.”

Trump now needs a clear win.
Photographer: Samuel Corum/Sipa/Getty

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The game theory of the Persian Gulf is no longer comforting. For two weeks, the logic was that President Donald Trump wanted a short, sharp action, as he was elected on an anti-war platform, and didn’t wish prices to rise ahead of the midterm elections. Thus he would likely TACO (for “Trump Always Chickens Out”), declare a victory and move on.