One of these men has a plan. 

One of these men has a plan. 

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Hal Brands, Columnist

The US Is Already Losing the New Cold War to China

Trump’s tough talk and actions in 2017 set off a global contest, but Xi is the one with the long-term plan for victory.

Of all today’s crises and conflicts, the US-China rivalry will most fundamentally remake our world. A contest between the two top powers will shape the international system and the lives of people everywhere. At best, it will be a long, tense struggle — a “New Cold War” — lasting many years. At worst, it could explode into nuclear catastrophe. For Americans, winning this competition will be the central challenge of our time.

Beijing understands the stakes. For decades, it has been working to overtake the US as Asia’s leading power. Its long-term goal, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has stated, is to make “a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.” Since 2017, two different US presidents — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — have identified China as America’s foremost rival. America’s military, economy and government are being transformed by competition with Beijing. In a polarized country, anti-China policies are among the few measures that can still win broad, bipartisan support.