Florida’s Future: More Wealth, Higher Costs and Less Growth

Early signs of a recovery in Florida’s housing market should start to quiet the chatter surrounding the state’s real-estate and migration slump of the past few years. But Florida is unlikely to return to the model of rapid population growth and construction that have helped it boom.

A surge in the cost of housing and insurance since the late 2010s means Florida no longer offers the kind of value to the middle class and out-of-state retirees that it once did. Instead, migration to Florida will now be more skewed toward the rich, who are drawn to the state’s tax code and political leaning as much as its beaches and golf courses. This doesn’t doom Florida as naysayers will suggest. But it will create winners and losers at the local level and challenges for those parts of the state that aren’t draws for the wealthy and tourists.