This Oil Shock Is Testing the Limits of US Energy Dominance

Droll little stickers began appearing on the gas pumps in my area in the summer of 2022. They depicted then-President Joe Biden pointing his finger toward the price display, saying, “I did that!” Oil had spiked above $100 a barrel. The stickers seemed unfair since the initial salvoes of the Ukraine war were the main cause; Russian President Vladimir Putin would have been a more fitting subject.

It surely cannot be long until we begin to see new versions, sporting the visage of President Donald Trump. The Iran war is definitely his venture and its burgeoning fallout has pushed average gasoline prices to around $3.50 a gallon, their highest level in two years, and briefly pushed crude oil north of $100 on Monday, for the first time since that summer of 2022. As with Biden’s sticker shock, a big, sustained increase in gasoline costs could have a profound effect on US energy policy and two sectors hitched to its frequent twists and turns, particularly given the very different starting point in 2026.