Polymarket and Kalshi’s Iran War Wagers Are Ghoulish — and Troubling

As bad behavior in finance goes, the idea of insiders betting on the US and Israel attacking Iran is about as appalling as it gets. Cashing in on death and destruction across the Middle East — or anywhere else — would be despicable. But beyond the moral dimension, there’s also the issue of national security: Given that handing such information to an enemy would be an act of treason, should risking intelligence leaks through price signals be seen as any less traitorous?

Prediction markets already face questions about their propriety after a string of dubious trades attracted public scrutiny in recent months. Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket should just stop offering wagers on anything related to war, military operations or regime change — shockingly, Polymarket also hosts trades on whether a nuclear bomb will be detonated in Ukraine this year. Legitimate needs to hedge financial or commodity risks are already well-served by existing futures and options markets; no one needs these wild-west binary bets.