The White House Is Too Sure About Iran and Oil Prices
The crude oil tanker, Sanan, in coastal waters near Bandare Asaluyah, Iran, on January 27, 2026.
Photographer: SAM/AFP“Past performance is no guarantee of future results,” is a disclaimer deeply ingrained in the Wall Street psyche. And for good reason. The White House should heed it, too. Just because President Donald Trump bombed Iran last year without sending oil prices skyrocketing, it doesn’t mean he can do it again.
It’s easy to see why the Trump administration feels secure. Thanks to the shale revolution, American oil production is at a record high — an embarrassment of riches compared with the energy landscape that predecessors from Richard Nixon to George W. Bush had to navigate. In historical terms, oil is cheap, and chants of “death to America” in the Middle East no longer push energy traders into a buying frenzy.