The New China Trade Shock Is Just Beginning

The good news for China is that its export machine is still very much a going concern. It might even be described as thriving, despite US tariffs. Just as well, given domestic conditions reveal an economy struggling for traction. Growth in fourth quarter was the slackest since the re opening from Covid in 2022.

Still, the trade surplus last year exceeded $1 trillion, a record amount that’s rich with implications. Measured by China’s unabated dispatch of goods across the world, globalization hasn’t been undone by the levies imposed by the White House. It keeps absorbing setbacks, as does the world economy. That’s a relief given the host of dire predictions that accompanied the imposition of duties in April.