A Taiwan Conflict Would Cost China. That Won’t Stop Xi
Xi may well be prepared to pay a high price on Taiwan.
Photographer: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images
Taiwan’s unification with China sits at the heart of President Xi Jinping’s ambitions. But the costs to Beijing of a conflict would be staggering — in lives lost, economic damage, military credibility and domestic stability. Still, none of this guarantees Xi won’t act.
Beijing has said it wants to unify peacefully with the island, which it claims as its territory, although it has never ruled out using force. A new report by the Washington-based think tank German Marshall Fund outlines the worst-case scenario for the mainland. Most academic wargaming focuses on the risks for Taiwan and the US, but this study, edited by GMF’s Indo-Pacific Managing Director Bonnie Glaser and written by respected China and Taiwan experts, is notable for its assessment of China’s weaknesses.