Ukraine’s Peace Deal Is Stuck on Territory for Good Reason
A memorial for fallen soldiers outside the destroyed regional administration of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, on Sept. 24.
Photographer: Julia Kochetova/Bloomberg
Of the two main sticking points in getting a deal to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that Kyiv, if not Moscow, can accept, there seems to have been a breakthrough on security guarantees. Territorial concessions are proving more difficult and it’s reasonable to ask why.
For promoters of the original 28-point ceasefire deal that US negotiators drafted with the Kremlin, the answer is straightforward: It shouldn’t be that big a deal. Russia already occupies about 20% of its neighbor, and to add what remains in Ukrainian hands of Donetsk Province would expand that by about a percentage point. Take a big step back, and that looks a small price to pay for a genuinely independent Ukraine, after centuries of struggle. Besides, the argument goes, if the war goes on Ukraine will soon lose the territory anyhow.