The Oil Market Is Always Wrong About Long-Term Prices
The oil market is too relaxed about the prospect for higher prices by the end of the decade.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
Let’s be honest: The oil market has always been wrong about long-term prices. Unsurprisingly, it’s currently wrong in anticipating that a barrel of crude will cost around $60 by 2030, close to current levels. Barring an economic cataclysm, oil will be more expensive five years from now.
Before the bulls celebrate, however, let me reaffirm that I remain short-term bearish, particularly for the first half of 2026. Little has changed since late 2024, when I warned the price level that mattered wasn’t $100-a-barrel anymore, but rather $50. Unless OPEC+ cuts production significantly, and quite soon, oil prices will weaken further in the next few months, probably overshooting to the downside. I’m not convinced that we won’t see prices starting with a 4 before the dollar sign, even if briefly, early next year.