After Maduro Comes the Hard Part: Fixing Venezuela’s Economy

Speculation about Venezuela is so rife these days that it’s pointless to add more dubious predictions. One thing, however, is clear: if Nicolás Maduro’s regime finally falls — a big if, even with the current US military buildup in the Southern Caribbean — the country will be staring at one of the most monumental economic reconstruction efforts in modern history.

There is simply no contemporary parallel to Venezuela’s collapse. Until not long ago, the country boasted one of the highest per-capita incomes in Latin America and was a major player in global oil markets. For years, its economy was roughly the size of Colombia’s; in 2012, both Andean nations produced about $370 billion. Today, Venezuela’s GDP is less than one-fifth of Colombia’s after shrinking an astonishing 78% in dollar terms, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund. Extreme economic mismanagement under the socialist experiment of Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chávez — which unleashed hyperinflation and pushed about eight million Venezuelans to emigrate — gutted the country’s business and productive base.