Sudan’s Civil War Foreshadows the New World Disorder

Western media and governments are being taken to task for paying too little attention to Sudan — rightly so. The war in Ukraine is bigger and Gaza’s more intense, but for the scale of civilian suffering, the Horn of Africa is unmatched.

Sudan’s civil war has been raging since 2023 and gets ignored because it’s so hard to see a solution. Yet we avert our eyes at our peril, because this conflict offers a foretaste of the armed chaos that looks set to characterize the world’s transition from US dominance. This isn’t to whitewash the American, and before that European, centuries. Their actions play a central role in the violence that’s unfolding, from the imposition of arbitrary state borders, to more recent interventions in Iraq or Libya.

Yet Sudan’s post-Western era is looking just as colonial, as a contest between two generals for power and spoils draws in the rising powers that today demand a say in who gets to run, mine or trade in their back yards. The biggest role in fomenting Sudan’s mayhem is played by the wealthy Gulf states – in particular the United Arab Emirates, but also Saudi Arabia and Qatar – as well as Egypt. Prizes include agriculture, gold, water and Red Sea ports. China, Eritrea, Iran, Libya and Russia are in the mix, too.

The UAE, despite denials, backs, funds and arms the Rapid Support Forces, led by General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, which have been making headlines lately for their savage treatment of civilians in Darfur’s capital, El Fasher. At the same time, it also trades with — and so indirectly funds — the RSF’s opponent, the Sudanese Armed Forces, or FAS, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Gold plays a huge role. According to Sudan’s central bank, the Emiratis bought almost 97% of Sudan’s official gold exports in 2024, which refers only to that sold by Burhan’s internationally recognized government. The RSF mines and sells gold too, though, so the country’s actual output is much larger than the official 64.36-metric-ton figure reported for 2024, and the UAE buys most of it.

Ten or 20 years ago, the US would have tried to knock heads together in Sudan and the United Nations might have proposed peacekeepers. But Washington’s engagement has been tepid, at best. That’s because to do more would involve Donald Trump confronting key Gulf-state allies and business partners when he needs their support on Israel and Iran. But it isn’t clear Trump’s America would want to get involved even if that weren’t the case. The so-called Right to Protect — a principle that the international community should prevent governments from slaughtering their own citizens — emerged at the peak of the US “liberal world order” in the 1990s and early 2000s, but has fallen out of fashion. Identity politics and the right of the strong to control their own spheres of influence rule our day.