The UK Needs to Break Out of Its Debt Doom Loop
Government borrowing is at its highest level since the pandemic, growth is weak and taxes are driving away high earners. Boldness is required.
On the hot seat.
Photographer: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images
Britain’s public finances are no longer just impaired; they’re in danger of breaking down. Growth is weak, debt-servicing costs are climbing and the tax burden keeps rising on the same narrow base. Investors have started to call it a “debt doom loop.” A budget due in two months’ time will have to reckon with all this and more.
The numbers are grim. The government points to modest improvements in investment levels, but gross fixed capital formation stood at just 18.2% of GDP in the first quarter, the lowest in the Group of Seven. Economic growth is expected to reach a modest 1.4% this year and slow to 1% in 2026, even as the tax take climbs to 39% of gross domestic product. Government borrowing is now at its highest level since the pandemic, while annual debt-interest costs have eclipsed the defense budget.