How Badly Do We Need the BLS? The Shutdown Is Showing Us.

President Donald Trump’s attacks and now a government shutdown are adding to a long list of challenges for America’s chronically underfunded government statistics bureaus, leaving businesses, investors and others groping in the dark for signals about the economy. Private data isn’t a viable replacement, and we’re likely to learn that the hard way the longer the government remains shuttered.

Consider this week’s labor market data (or the lack thereof). With the first shutdown since 2019 underway, investors turned Wednesday to private sector payrolls numbers from ADP Research. On Wall Street, the ADP release is typically seen as a preview of the official US employment report on the first Friday of the month, but this month’s shutdown made it the main event. And its release led to more questions than answers at a critical time for the US economy and monetary policy.