Broadway Needs More Risky Musicals

Big Broadway musicals are failing at an alarming rate. None of the 18 that opened last year has so far turned a profit. Some theater critics will surely say that’s because too many of these shows are derivative and play it safe, but I am an economist, so my explanation is slightly different: It’s the producers who aren’t taking enough chances.

Most musicals are no longer based on original content, and most theatergoers find it hard to justify spending upwards of $800 to sit through another movie adaptation or well-known artist’s songbook. Yet the evolving economics of Broadway are pushing producers to take fewer risks with original material. Paradoxically, their pursuit of “a sure thing” may be their undoing.