, Columnist
Why the Fed’s Rate Cut May Be Its Last of 2025
Policymakers are squarely in two camps — and it’s far from certain that the doves will prevail.
Reading the Fed.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday delivered its first interest rate reduction of 2025. Will the central bank continue to meet expectations by lowering rates two more times before the year is over? Don’t count on it.
Expectations in futures markets are an oversimplification of what is essentially a binary path for interest rates: One that gives markets what they want, and another increasingly likely path that could mean the Fed has delivered all the cuts we’re going to get in this calendar year.