The US Can Survive Tariffs. That Doesn’t Mean They’re Worth It.

On hearing of the Continental Army’s pivotal victory at the Battle of Saratoga in 1777, John Sinclair told Adam Smith, “The British nation must be ruined.” As Sinclair recalled, the author of The Wealth of Nations (published the year before) urged him to calm down. “Be assured, my young friend, there is a great deal of ruin in a nation.”

Dedicated though he was to the benefits of free trade, Smith would doubtless say the same about today’s turn toward mercantilism. It’s a blow, but not the end of the world. That’s worth noting: Catastrophism, a popular mode of discourse these days, is usually unhelpful. But champions of President Donald Trump’s approach to trade are apt to make the opposite mistake — namely, thinking that if the roof hasn’t fallen in, the policy must be succeeding. If it results in slower growth and persistent underperformance, that might not be “ruin,” but it sure isn’t victory.