The Next Great Job Churn Is Already Starting

The geography of employment in the US is being shaped by two distinct trends. The first is low levels of housing churn and, therefore, interstate migration, a normal part of the business cycle that should eventually turn around. More consequential are signs that artificial intelligence is beginning to suppress hiring in some of the most technology-centric parts of the country such as the San Francisco Bay Area — a shift that may portend a structural change in the labor market.

This is a useful time to look at changes in employment growth in different parts of the country and compare these with the pre-pandemic economy, since overall job growth is currently only a touch lower than it was in 2019. US employment grew 1.2% in April from a year earlier, close to the 1.3% growth seen in 2019.