, Columnist
Stagflation Is Now America’s Best-Case Scenario
Trump’s tariffs risk a brutal combination of recession and inflation.
Markets still don't understand how bad the tariff damage will be.
Photographer: TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFPThis article is for subscribers only.
Don’t expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the US economy from the epic tariffs the Trump administration has imposed on imports from most of the world. The only question now is how bad the damage will be.
The president’s attack on free trade is truly extraordinary in scope, scale and lack of nuance. The weighted-average tariff will likely climb to 25% or more of the value of imports this year, from less than 3%. This increase amounts to more than 10 times what Trump did in his first term.