, Columnist
Tariff Anxiety and the Dilemma of Forecasting
Investors want clarity. Will the Trump administration stand up to the market?
The uncertainty around tariffs is not worth it for the markets.
Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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Paraphrasing FDR, there is an argument that we have nothing to fear from tariffs, save tariff fear itself. There are arguments that the cost might not be that high, but forecasting is maddeningly difficult because US policy is so inconsistent. Thursday, the US lifted the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada three days after it imposed them. This was what many wanted to hear, but amped up the uncertainty and volatility surrounding trade policy.