We’ll Keep Having Fewer Babies. Time to Accept That

After years of grinding lower, a widely watched measure of fertility in a country battling significant demographic headwinds notched a small increase. While welcome, there’s little chance South Korea’s popular narrative of a nation blighted by empty schools and a deserted countryside will be put aside. Smaller families are here to stay.

Nobody is popping the champagne. Few experts consider that a trickle of decent numbers represents a change in the long-term trend of slowing population growth. Nor is Korea alone. According to the United Nations, the world’s headcount will peak in the 2080s and then begin declining. Two other closely studied Asian economies reported a mixed bag on the birth front last week: Singapore's gauge paused a decline, while Japan produced fewer kids than ever in 2024.