An Asteroid Doomsday Is Getting Less Likely
NASA’s early detection program will probably bring more false alarms, but it could also save us.
Yikes. (Illustration by Tobias Roetsch/Future Publishing/Getty Images)
Photographer: All About Space Magazine/FutureDon’t blame the astronomers for the ever-changing odds that an asteroid called 2024 YR4 will strike Earth in 2032. The likelihood has gone from about 1.3% in January to an unprecedented 3.1% and is now down to less than 1%. MIT astronomer Richard Binzel compares the task at hand to predicting a home run — or which seat a ball will land on in the stands — right after the crack of the bat.
The space rock has gotten so much press because, at about 50 meters across, it’s large enough to take out a major city. (For a while, some calculations showed Lagos, Bogota and Mumbai most at risk.)