Don’t Blink Now, Trump. Russia’s Economy Is Cracking.

For at least a year now, the Kremlin has been convinced — and persuaded many others — that it holds all the cards in Ukraine, with more manpower and ammunition, a bigger arms industry and, as a result, an advantage in the most important commodity of all for a war of attrition: time.

This presumption proved a fallacy from the first day of the war, when Russian troops marched into Ukraine expecting instant victory, with parade uniforms in their backpacks but just a few days’ worth of fuel and supplies. It remains false today, as difficult as Ukraine’s position on the front lines has become — not least because Russia’s economy is losing its near-miraculous Teflon shield.

This is a critical point to understand as a new US administration prepares to announce a plan for peace talks. If President Vladimir Putin does have time to burn, he can bargain from a position of strength, knowing that Ukraine must eventually fold to his demands.

The reality, however, is that Putin’s hand is weaker than he would have us believe, and it’s US President Donald Trump who can afford to dig in at the negotiating table. Because some of the strong cards the Kremlin is often claimed to hold are either contingent on choices made in the West (with its far larger economic and military potential), contested by Ukraine (think of Kyiv’s growing long-range strike capability, or the territory it still holds in Russia’s Kursk region), or illusory.