The Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
Education, health care and government have kept payroll numbers buoyant, but hiring momentum even in those areas is fading.
Turning the page.
Photographer: Olivier Touron/AFP
The resilience of the labor market over the past year has, in large part, been about strength in sectors such as education, health care and government that are somewhat immune to economic cycles. Continued robust hiring there has contrasted with weakness in more cyclical industries including construction, manufacturing and professional services. So long as that balance remains, we can muddle through without unemployment spiking, even if high interest rates and the prospect of a trade war keep some employers sitting on their hands.
The problem is that those less-cyclical parts of the labor market are also cooling off. Unless we get a pickup elsewhere, employment prospects for job seekers will weaken in 2025.