Shuli Ren, Columnist

This Is How to Divine China Vanke’s Future

There are likely no good outcomes for the distressed real estate developer — it’s little wonder investors are pessimistic.

January 20, 2025 at 9:00 PM UTC

By Shuli Ren

Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets. A former investment banker, she was a markets reporter for Barron’s. She is a CFA charterholder.

Time is running out for China Vanke.
Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

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With about $5 billion in debt coming due this year, time is running out for China Vanke Co., the country’s largest privately-held real estate developer.

Vanke has no effective management at the top. State-owned Shenzhen Metro Group Co., its largest shareholder, held only a 27% stake as of last September, making it arguably a passive investor. By June, the company no longer had enough cash to cover short-term debt. Meanwhile, property sales remain anemic despite China’s housing rescue measures. Officials in Shenzhen, where Vanke is headquartered, held a closed-door meeting to discuss Vanke’s business operations on Friday, Bloomberg News reported.