John Authers, Columnist

Inflation Could Derail Trump 2.0 Before It Starts

The battle of expectations continues. Republicans believe inflation will fall to 0.1%, while Democrats foresee 4%.

January 14, 2025 at 5:01 AM UTC

John Authers is a senior editor for markets and Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief markets commentator at the Financial Times, he is author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets.”

Inauguration rehearsal.
Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

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We ought to have been able to forget about inflation by now. It was trending down, the Federal Reserve was cutting rates, and attention could move on to averting a recession and sustaining employment. But startlingly strong US employment, a global surge in bond yields, and a big rally for the dollar all ensure that the last consumer price inflation numbers for 2024, published Wednesday, will command attention. If the consensus of the economists interviewed by Bloomberg has it right, then the December number will mean yet more frustration, with core CPI (excluding food and fuel) remaining unchanged at 3.3%, too high to permit more rate cuts: