Can Trump Make American Exceptionalism Last?
US stocks have dominated all others for the past 15 years. But the risks are known, and growing consensus that it must continue is uncomfortable.
In stock markets, it’s been America First since the Global Financial Crisis.
Photographer: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
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There are three powerful forces in the world of investment that you never want to bet against: Momentum, Mean Reversion, and US Exceptionalism. Heading into 2025, however, at least one will have to give. As the season for publishing annual outlooks continues, it’s grown clearer that a big majority believes there will be no reverting to the mean this time, and that the impressive momentum behind US dominance can go on and on. It’s surpassingly hard to disagree. But it’s still worth registering what might finally bring American outperformance back to its average.