Welcome to the Post-American New World Disorder

If you’re curious to know what a truly post-American world will look like, take a close look at what’s been going on the last few days, and you’ll get what I suspect is a pretty accurate snapshot.

In the Levant, Syria’s smoldering civil war flared up, with an apparently reformed Islamist terrorist organization retaking the northern city of Aleppo. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, surprised even itself by the ease with which President Bashar al-Assad’s forces initially melted before it.

This became feasible because Assad’s allies — who stepped into the void in 2015, after then-US President Barack Obama declined to hold the ring - find their militaries sapped by engagements elsewhere. Russia is mired in Ukraine; Iran and Hezbollah have taken a severe beating from Israel. HTS, backed by Turkey, chose its moment accordingly.

None of these players asked US permission to act. Even Israel ignored US opposition to its invasion of Lebanon and continued war in Gaza. President Joe Biden’s lame-duck administration has made clear it has nothing to do with the opposition campaign in Syria, and no interest in its continuation. Conspiracy theorists will need to find new narratives.

Meanwhile, in the Transcaucasia region, a long day’s drive northeast from Aleppo, a decision by the government of Georgia to end its bid to join the European Union drew huge crowds into the streets of the capital Tbilisi. They fought rolling street battles with riot police, exchanging fireworks and other projectiles for water-cannon blasts.

This is happening, because although the vast majority of Georgians say they want to join the EU, their current government has been able to keep power while abandoning the EU path. That may in part be due to electoral fraud, if opposition allegations prove accurate. But primarily, it’s down to the popular fear – encouraged by the government itself and a bombardment of Russian propaganda – that if this small country tries to do what its people want, it will end up like Ukraine. Russian tanks and troops already occupy parts of Georgia barely more than an hour from the capital, so that’s no idle threat.

Further west in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is ramping up his efforts to seize as much territory and degrade as much of Kyiv’s capacity to resist as he can, ahead of the settlement talks now widely expected to take place after President-elect Donald Trump moves into the White House on Jan. 20. He's doing so, because what Trump brings to the table that’s new is a stated desire to end US aid for Ukraine’s defense.