, Columnist
In the Long Run, We’re All Revised Projections
The annual ritual of publishing next-year forecasts and then tearing them apart is underway. And then there’s the long term.
Short-term assumptions aren’t always better.
Photographer: David Ryder/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
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This is the season when investment houses publish their forecasts for the coming year, and I excoriate them as a waste of time. Not only is it silly to spend time looking at arbitrary short time periods, but for most institutions, it’s the very long term that really matters.