A Messier Middle East Awaits Trump’s Second Coming
Keeping both his Arab and Israeli friends happy will be a challenge.
Donald Trump (left), speaks with Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (center) in 2019 at Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan.
Photographer: Kim Kyung-Hoon/ReutersIt didn’t take long. Within days of Donald Trump’s election victory, Israel’s leaders up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu became more open about their intentions for the Palestinian territories: permanent occupation, combined with the annexation of illegally settled parts of the West Bank. Or in the tweeted words of Israel’s ultra-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir: “Yesssss.”
It also isn’t hard to understand the jubilation. For many Israelis, not just Ben Gvir, memories of Trump’s first term are fond ones. He collapsed the nuclear deal with Iran that many profoundly distrusted. He also recognized both Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the occupied Golan Heights as part of its territory.
But more important to hopes in Israel’s government than even these happy recollections is the fact that every appointment the soon-to-be second-term US president has made to his foreign policy team so far is either an Iran hawk, a fierce supporter of Israel (or indeed a greater Israel) or both.
Even so, it would be foolish to say we know exactly what Trump will do over the next four years. Ultimately, he is the decider-in-chief. Events, together with his perception of interests — his own followed by those of the US — will determine his choices. And it’s unlikely those decisions will be simple.