, Columnist
Trump’s Biggest China Problem Won’t Be Trade
While a tariff war seems almost guaranteed, the real danger is stumbling into a Cuban Missile-style standoff over Taiwan.
A fourth Taiwan crisis?
Photographer: Annabelle Chih/Getty Images
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Most observers expect that the biggest clash between China and a US led once again by Donald Trump will involve trade. The president-elect has vowed to impose 60% tariffs or higher on all Chinese imports. Prominent Republican senators want to cancel the mainland’s most-favored nation trading status.
A trade war of such magnitude would indeed gravely injure China. With its economy stuck in neutral, losing access to the lucrative US market could shave 2.5 percentage points off economic growth within a year.