Trump Inherits an Economy at a Tricky Time
The labor market is already cooling and the next president’s promises to slash spending and end green subsidies may add to the headwinds.
Looking ahead.
Photographer: Leonardo Munoz/AFP
Donald Trump will inherit, to all appearances, a solid economy when he assumes the presidency in January. After all, the stock market is at record highs, unemployment is low by historical standards and gross domestic product has been expanding at a healthy pace of around 2.5% so far this year. Yet there’s a reason for voter dissatisfaction with the economy and, beneath the surface, there are several risks for Trump 2.0 as he thinks about enacting his trade and fiscal agenda.
Let’s start with jobs. Trump took over a stable labor market in 2017, with the unemployment rate falling throughout the previous year and payroll growth steady at roughly 200,000 a month. That’s not true this time around: The jobless rate has been on the rise, hiring is below normal and payroll growth has cooled since the first quarter.