Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now
Also CZ is relaxed, greenhushing and a fake Paramount buyer.
One thing that I thought was a little interesting on Tuesday is that the prediction markets for the US presidential election didn’t really move all day. Kalshi, for instance, had Donald Trump at 57.1% at 6 a.m.; at 11 a.m. he was up to 58.6%, at 2 p.m. down to 57%, and at 7 p.m. he was back to 57.1%, where he had started the day.1 After that, polls closed, results started coming in and the odds moved pretty rapidly: 61% at 8 p.m., 74.1% at 10 p.m., 92.5% by midnight. But essentially no new information was incorporated into prices during the day.
This makes sense and is consistent with at least semi-strong form market efficiency and also with my acquisition of information: There are polls and news and early voting and stuff in the days leading up to Election Day, and then on the night of Election Day results become public and you can update frequently, but during Election Day itself not much happens. Polling guru Nate Silver also experiences it this way: