Don’t Bet Against the Dollar
America’s growing and dynamic economy means that global demand for the US currency will continue to be strong.
Too many advantages to count.
Photographer: Anita Pouchard Serra/Bloomberg
I’ve long been bullish on the US dollar, even as others look forward to its weakening or worry that its strength is hurting US markets. I like to think of myself as open to differing opinions, so I would like to update my views: I am even more bullish now, for a mix of new and old reasons.
One short-run factor is that the US economy appears headed for a soft landing. That will always be a provisional judgment, but it is better than being mired in a recession. America’s continued robust economic growth is a reason to revise upward expectations for the dollar. Recently the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecast a 3.4% GDP growth rate for 2024. Again, the reality may differ — but in expected value terms, the US is doing better than reasonably would have been expected in 2023.