Prediction Markets Reflect That the Clock Favors Trump
Plus, the Polymarket whale is French, 62% probability isn’t a certainty, and October has failed to surprise.
Time is on his side more and more.
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The trade volumes of Polymarket, currently the world’s largest prediction market, have just surpassed $2 billion, which is a lot. The total capitalization of all US stocks is about $56 trillion, which is much more. However, Polymarket seems to be generating far more interest than stocks right now. For Bloomberg’s great new Weekend Edition, I’ve written an extended essay on the history of political betting, going back to the hectic trading that once flourished on the streets of Rome during conclaves to choose the next Pope. You can find the essay here.