Europe Can't Kick Its Addiction to Russian Natural Gas
The Kafkaesque interdependence between countries should be acknowledged, because it’s likely to continue.
The Kremlin in Moscow.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
It must rank among the most preposterous examples of realpolitik. Nearly three years since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still buying billions of euros of Russian natural gas. Absurdly, the Russian gas flows into the continent via a Ukrainian pipeline. Perhaps even more ludicrously, Kyiv charges its archenemy Moscow transit fees for using the conduit; in the middle of the war, the Kremlin duly pays the €800-million-a-year invoice1.
The Kafkaesque flow, defying perceived political realities, is a sign of how Europe can’t live without Russian gas. Don’t say it too loudly, though, because nobody wants to hear it.
True, Europe is far less dependent on Russia than it once was. Before the war, the latter contributed 45% of European gas imports; last year, its market share plunged to 15%.Worryingly, not only has the reduction ended, but dependence is now increasing slightly. Year-to-date, Russia has about 20% of all European gas imports.
I don’t blame the naysayers for pretending European dependency is over. Because if one acknowledges it isn’t, then the corollary is clear: Europe pays Russia for gas; Russia uses that money to wage war against Ukraine; in turn, Europe gives money to Ukraine to stop Russia. Thus the continent is bankrolling both sides of the conflict.
Russian gas flows into Europe via three main routes. The first two involve pipelines. One runs throughout Ukraine into Slovakia; another travels via Turkey into Bulgaria. The third way is transport as liquefied natural gas, a product that’s super-cooled for loading onto tankers and shipping around the world, very much like oil.