John Authers, Columnist

Markets Need an October Surprise to Break Deadlock

And investors shouldn’t count on another jumbo rate cut, either.

October 3, 2024 at 4:44 AM UTC

John Authers is a senior editor for markets and Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief markets commentator at the Financial Times, he is author of “The Fearful Rise of Markets.”

An October Surprise could come from any direction.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

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When is something going to break the deadlock in the US? The nation is awaiting clarity in a tense presidential campaign that appears stuck in a dead heat. The notorious “October Surprise” could come from any direction, most obviously the Middle East and the US ports strike. But one doesn’t happen until it happens.

Then there’s the economy. Markets have been celebrating imminent sweeping rate cuts from a data-dependent Federal Reserve for a while. Yet the data are not complying — and have started to surprise positively for the first time in five months, ahead of a welter of employment numbers to end the week: