A Trucking Recovery Is Slipping Further Into the Future
Capacity hasn’t come out of the market fast enough to stem the long slide of cargo rates, and the CEO of Uber Freight doesn’t expect a rebound until the second half of 2025.
The current downturn in trucking has been a bit of an enigma.
Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg
The long-haul trucking industry doesn’t offer robust, steady growth that entices investors to buy a stock and just sit on it. The industry has bull and bear cycles that are usually somewhat predictable, and smart transportation investors know how to play the cycles.
When demand is strong, more trucks and drivers jump into the market chasing the higher rates. Everybody makes money. When demand slows, the industry is caught with too many trucks bidding on dwindling shipments. Rates fall and truckers go bust. The complaints about driver shortages become more muted, but never go away, as holders of commercial driver’s licenses look elsewhere for employment. When enough capacity comes out and freight rebounds, the bull cycle starts again.